Current Natural Disasters

Our previous article,  How To Stay Healthy While Stressed, stated that several stress factors (excess psychological stress, inadequate personal care, environmental exposure, toxic chemical exposure, poor food and water supply, and infectious agents) converged as a consequence of one destructive storm, Hurricane Harvey. 

Life-threatening stress on human health is typical of large natural disasters. During the past four weeks, in addition to the natural disasters that struck Mexico, Africa, Asia, and elsewhere, three hurricanes disrupted the lives of millions of Americans.

1. Hurricane Harvey devastated vast areas of Texas and parts of Louisiana
2. Hurricane Irma destroyed or damaged property in the state of Florida
3. Hurricane Maria destroyed property and the food and water supply of Puerto Rico

Climatologists focused on the potential threat of massive storms usually provide public warnings a few days before landfall, providing time for evacuations if possible. Surrounded by the sea, Puerto Rico had no plan for large-scale evacuations, but FEMA’s preparedness advice, a two-week supply of food and water, would have mitigated the current crisis.

This article explains why there has been an extraordinary number of highly destructive storms.

Global Warming and Storms

The following information about global warming and storms is taken from our January 2017 article, updated today to include the phrase “abrupt climate change.”

Global warming is responsible for the marked increase in deadly storms observed throughout the world.

The concept seems contradictory at first, warmer temperatures in one place causing cold winters in another. But the paper finds that a hotter, less icy Arctic—a region that has warmed twice as fast as the rest of the world over the last two decades—creates a bulge of warm air in the lower atmosphere that forces the jet stream to become wavier, dipping farther south in some places and peaking farther north in others as it moves eastward around the globe. As it dips south into latitudes lower than it used to, it carries with it cold Arctic air. Reference

Some scientists believe that the current global warming trend is a natural, periodic phenomenon and that the responsible factors have already begun to reverse. Global cooling, not global warming is now the issue. Expect winters to become increasingly severe.

Continued weakening of the Gulf Stream and other ocean currents appear to have initiated "abrupt climate change." Severe storms may peak in 2017 or 2018, followed by a cooling of the globe a few to several degrees below the average temperatures existent before the upward trend.

Furthermore, increased volcanic activity can reduce global temperatures and abruptly change the climate at any time after sufficient atmospheric volcanic ash reduces solar radiation.

Evidence of Abrupt Climate Change

Recent, Highly-Destructive Hurricanes 

Since the year 2000, several major hurricanes have each caused billions of dollars of property damage in the United States and its territories. The names and years of occurrence of these hurricanes are as follows:

1. Wilma, 2005
2. Katrina, 2005
3. Ike, 2008
4. Irene, 2011
5. Sandy, 2012
6. Harvey, 2017
7. Irma, 2017
8. Maria, 2017

The intensity of Hurricanes Sandy, Harvey, Irma, and Maria were extraordinary. As anticipated in our January 2017 article, most of the damage from hurricanes has occurred this year, 2017. 

The current global warming trend portends an increase in destructive storms and storm surge in 2017, which will impact coastal and low-lying areas of the United States and other parts of the world.

Since storm severity will also increase, it would be wise to evacuate vulnerable areas when asked by authorities.

Also, see recommendations at Ready.gov to prepare against possible disruptions to food and water supplies.

Please note that “global warming” and “climate change” are not synonyms. The warming (or cooling) of the planet is only one aspect of a changing climate.

Gradual vs. Abrupt Changes in Climate

News and other media often discuss elevated global temperatures, higher sea levels, and the consequences of these developments, with projections for a gradual change up to the year 2050. A uniformly progressive flooding of coastal and low-lying communities provides time for relocation or the construction of sea-walls.

However, current events provide evidence for “abrupt climate change,” a scientific observation and prediction rarely discussed in the media.

A Report for the Department of Defense

In 2003, Jet Propulsion Laboratory of Pasadena, California, prepared the following report for the Department of Defense on the national security implications of an anticipated abrupt change in climate:  An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security (posted on this website). 

This report correctly predicted the start of the collapse of the Gulf Stream ("the thermohaline collapse begins in 2010") and the consequent cooling of Europe, the near absence of ice in the northern polar seas in Summer by 2010, and other conditions as stated in the following excerpts from the report:

Rather than decades or even centuries of gradual warming, recent evidence suggests the possibility that a more dire climate scenario may actually be unfolding.

While future weather patterns and the specific details of abrupt climate change cannot be predicted accurately or with great assurance, the actual history of climate change provides some useful guides. Our goal is merely to portray a plausible scenario, similar to one which has already occurred in human experience, for which there is reasonable evidence so that we may further explore potential implications for United States national security.

The past examples of abrupt climate change suggest that it is prudent to consider an abrupt climate change scenario for the future as plausible, especially because some recent scientific findings suggest that we could be on the cusp of such an event.

Many scientists would regard this scenario as extreme both in how soon it develops, how large, rapid and ubiquitous the climate changes are. But history tells us that sometimes the extreme cases do occur, there is evidence that it might be and it is DOD’s job to consider such scenarios.

Floating ice in the northern polar seas, which had already lost 40% of its mass from 1970 to 2003, is mostly gone during summer by 2010. As glacial ice melts, sea levels rise and as wintertime sea extent decreases, ocean waves increase in intensity, damaging coastal cities.

As melting of the Greenland ice sheet exceeds the annual snowfall, and there is increasing freshwater runoff from high latitude precipitation, the freshening of waters in the North Atlantic Ocean and the seas between Greenland and Europe increases. The lower densities of these freshened waters in turn pave the way for a sharp slowing of the thermohaline circulation system.

After roughly 60 years of slow freshening, the thermohaline collapse begins in 2010, disrupting the temperate climate of Europe, which is made possible by the warm flows of the Gulf Stream (the North Atlantic arm of the global thermohaline conveyor). Ocean circulation patterns change, bringing less warm water north and causing an immediate shift in the weather in Northern Europe and eastern North America.

The dramatic slowing of the thermohaline circulation is anticipated by some ocean researchers, but the United States is not sufficiently prepared for its effects, timing, or intensity.

As weather patterns shift in the years following the collapse, it is not clear what type of weather future years will bring. While some forecasters believe the cooling and dryness is about to end, others predict a new ice age or a global drought, leaving policy makers and the public highly uncertain about the future climate and what to do, if anything.

While weather patterns are disrupted during the onset of the climatic change around the globe, the effects are far more pronounced in Northern Europe for the first five years after the thermohaline circulation collapse. By the second half of this decade, the chill and harsher conditions spread deeper into Southern Europe, North America, and beyond.

United States. Colder, windier, and drier weather makes growing seasons shorter and less productive throughout the northeastern United States, and longer and drier in the southwest. Desert areas face increasing windstorms, while agricultural areas suffer from soil loss due to higher wind speeds and reduced soil moisture. The change toward a drier climate is especially pronounced in the southern states. Coastal areas that were at risk during the warming period remain at risk, as rising ocean levels continues along the shores. The United States turns inward, committing its resources to feeding its own population, shoring-up its borders, and managing the increasing global tension.

The changing weather patterns and ocean temperatures affect agriculture, fish and wildlife, water and energy. Crop yields, affected by temperature and water stress as well as length of growing season fall by 10-25% and are less predictable as key regions shift from a warming to a cooling trend. As some agricultural pests die due to temperature changes, other species spread more readily due to the dryness and windiness – requiring alternative pesticides or treatment regiments.

With only five or six key grain-growing regions in the world (US, Australia, Argentina, Russia, China, and India), there is insufficient surplus in global food supplies to offset severe weather conditions in a few regions at the same time – let alone four or five. The world’s economic interdependence make the United States increasingly vulnerable to the economic disruption created by local weather shifts in key agricultural and high population areas around the world. Catastrophic shortages of water and energy supply – both which are stressed around the globe today – cannot be quickly overcome.

Co-founder and President of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, Peter Gleick outlines the three most fundamental challenges abrupt climate change poses for national security: 

1. Food shortages due to decreases in agricultural production 
2. Decreased availability and quality of fresh water due to flooding and droughts 
3. Disrupted access to strategic minerals due to ice and storms

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About Horton Tatarian

I’m a biochemist who examines scientific findings on health and disease. My degree in biochemistry is from U.C. Berkeley. UCLA School of Medicine granted an M.D. degree in 1974. Since then, independent research prepared me to advise clients on natural ways of self-care.

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